The analyses are conducted within a target trial emulation framework to estimate the effect of SV compared with ACEIs on the risk of angioedema.
For Estimand 1, the main estimand supporting decision making, the primary causal effect summary measure is the hazard ratio for time to first angioedema using a stratified Cox proportional hazards model in the PSM sample. The Cox model will be fitted separately within each data source (CPRD and BIFAP), and the resulting hazard ratios will be combined using a random-effects meta-analysis; potential sources of heterogeneity will be described qualitatively, including structural differences (e.g., coding systems, population coverage) and measurement differences (e.g., recording practices) and their implications (e.g., residual confounding or misclassification).
Sensitivity analyses will assess robustness of the primary findings to key assumptions, including inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW), best/worst case scenario, and probabilistic bias analysis for non-differential outcome misclassification (details in Section 7.6.5).
Two supplemental estimands are also defined: Estimand 2, applying a treatment policy strategy for intercurrent events, and Estimand 3, estimating treatment effects using restricted mean survival time (RMST) derived from a PSM Weibull accelerated failure time (AFT) model. In addition, supplemental analyses (e.g., crude and PS-matching adjusted Kaplan–Meier curves, crude Cox models, event counts and incidence rates, propensity score and weight distributions, covariate balance before and after PSM, censoring and intercurrent event patterns, proportional hazards diagnostics, positivity checks, and multiple-imputation diagnostics) will be conducted to support interpretation of the main analysis.