Predicting Asthma Attacks in Primary Care with Machine Learning

Study identification

• EU PAS number:
  EUPAS47718
• Study ID:
  47719
• Official title and acronym:
  Predicting Asthma Attacks in Primary Care with Machine Learning
• DARWIN EU® study:
  No
• Study countries:
  United Kingdom
• Study description:
  Introduction: Most asthma attacks and subsequent deaths are potentially preventable. We aim to develop a prognostic tool for identifying patients at high risk of asthma attacks in primary care by leveraging advances in machine learning. Methods and analysis: Current prognostic tools use logistic regression to develop a risk scoring model for asthma attacks. We propose to build on this by systematically applying various well-known machine learning techniques including deep learning techniques to a large longitudinal deidentified primary care database, the Optimum Patient Care Research Database, and comparatively evaluate their performance with the existing logistic regression model and against each other. Machine learning algorithms vary in their predictive abilities based on the dataset and the approach to analysis employed. We will undertake feature selection, classification (both one-class and two-class classifiers) and performance evaluation. Patients who have had actively treated clinician-diagnosed asthma, aged 8–80 years and with 3 years of continuous data, from 2016 to 2018, will be selected. Risk factors will be obtained from the first year, while the next 2 years will form the outcome period, in which the primary endpoint will be the occurrence of an asthma attack.
• Study status:
  Planned

Research institutions and networks

Institutions

University of Edinburgh (UofE)

United Kingdom

Networks

Optimum Patient Care (OPC) Network

United Kingdom (Northern Ireland)

Study timelines

Date when funding contract was signed

Planned:02/11/2020

Study start date

Planned:09/12/2021

Data analysis start date

Planned:09/12/2021

Actual:01/02/2022

Date of final study report

Planned:02/12/2024

Sources of funding

Non-for-profit organisation (e.g. charity)

Other

More details on funding

Asthma UK, Chief Scientist Office Scotland

Regulatory

• Was the study required by a regulatory body?:
  No
• Is the study required by a Risk Management Plan (RMP)?:
  Not applicable